China hates the new president of Taiwan — but its 'real nightmare scenario' is a Trump-Taiwan combo: analyst

Trump and Lai speak at their respective political events.

Vernon Yuen/NurPhoto via Getty Images and Brandon Bell/Getty Images

• Trump winning the 2024 election could create a "real nightmare scenario" for China, an analyst said.
• That's because he and Taiwan's president-elect William Lai could make diplomacy tough, Rorry Daniels said.
• China will view Trump and Lai as "unpredictable to Beijing's use of power in the world," she added.

Former President Donald Trump winning the White House in 2024 would create a "nightmare" for China, especially with president-elect William Lai Ching-te at Taiwan's helm, an analyst on China said.

Lai, who won Taiwan's presidential elections on Saturday under the Democratic Progressive Party, has pledged to continue Taipei's posture of resistance toward Beijing. However, he said he would work to uphold the cross-strait status quo.

The DPP's aggressive stance toward a similarly hostile China means Lai is expected to be disliked and distrusted by Beijing. In August, when Lai was Taiwan's vice president, the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry called him a "troublemaker through and through."

But it's Trump running the US in tandem with Lai's governing of Taiwan that could spark real trouble for China, Rorry Daniels of the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis said at a seminar, per Nikkei Asia.

"Beijing's real nightmare scenario is not necessarily watching Lai Ching-te winning the presidency of Taiwan, but it's the combination of Lai Ching-te and perhaps Donald Trump coming back into the White House," Daniels said.

China would see "both Lai and Trump as unpredictable to Beijing's use of power in the world," she added.

Another source of worry for China is if former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo returns in a leading position to a second Trump administration, Daniels said.

Pompeo has been vocal about US support for Taiwan, and recently called it a "sovereign country," a major red line for China even before leader Xi Jinping's tenure.

To China, "Trump is completely unreliable as an ally or an opponent," Stanley Rosen, professor of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California's US-China Institute, told Business Insider.

It's thus still unclear how exactly a second Trump presidency might play out for Beijing, Rosen said.

"Trump is very popular in Taiwan and Hong Kong because they think he talks tough and is tough, Rosen said. "But he doesn't follow through."

"He was a transactional president," Rosen said. The former president could theoretically even strike a deal with China to stop selling arms to Taipei, Rosen added.

One of the earliest actions that Trump took on the global stage in December 2016 was to personally call Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, the first time a US president spoke directly to the president of the self-governed island. Trump had repeatedly railed against China as a bully while campaigning.

His call deeply angered China, which protested the move as petty.

Trump followed up by suggesting that the US may one day abandon its agreement to the "one China policy," Beijing's red-line stance that Taiwan is part of China.

Cross-strait tensions soared, but just two months later, Trump called Xi and agreed that the US would uphold the "one China policy."

Trump is vying for the GOP nomination this year in the presidential election. He won the first polling event of the election season this week, clinching more than 50% of the vote in the Iowa Republican caucus — far ahead of challengers Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

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