November elections pose a risk to stocks, but history says equities will gain momentum heading into 2023.
Markets are set to slump ahead of November midterm elections, according to Barclays — but history says a rally could follow regardless of the results.
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1. Election risk could soon take center stage for the stock market. Ahead of November 8, investors should reduce risk since equities historically underperform going into midterms, according to Barclays.
Even as decades-high inflation and hefty rate hikes stay top of mind among investors, it isn't too early to start paring down riskier positions, the bank's analysts wrote in a Friday note.
In particular, Barclays flagged a change in voting sentiment on betting site PredictIt.
"The wide margin Republicans have enjoyed all through the year began narrowing since June end, which may be due to falling gasoline prices and a still resilient labour market boosting support for the Democrats," the strategists said.
The S&P 500 is down roughly 11% year-to-date, enduring a steep downturn before the recent bounce since June, which some analysts are calling a classic bear market rally.
In Bank of America's view, stocks have room to fall still and the bottom has yet to be found.
In any case, market analyses from the last 100 years reveal stocks underperform leading up to a November vote.
But then, regardless of election outcome, risks rapidly diminish and the market rebounds.
As Barclays put it: "[If] history repeats itself, investors should reduce risk into the November elections and position for a year-end rally afterwards."
What do you think is in store for markets ahead of November? Email me at prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.
In other news:
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2. US stock futures fall early Monday as hopes for a Fed pivot fade. Oil also slipped after Biden updated European leaders about progress on the Iran nuclear deal. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies were also down, with bitcoin trading near the $21,000 level. Here are the latest market moves.
3. Earnings on deck: Zoom Video Communications, Nordson Corp., and more, all reporting.
4. Rent growth has cooled but it's still at record highs in many metropolitan areas. Steep prices are keeping homeownership out of reach for many would-be buyers. An economist broke down how to navigate the current market and settle on the right mortgage.
5. The social aspects and sense of community are the crypto market's biggest draw but also the biggest danger. Blockchain firms often leverage popularity and a sense of community to gain traction among investors, experts told Insider. That can lead amateurs to become increasingly devoted to what crypto represents in social value.
6. Oil companies are using a Caribbean fuel trade to work around a century-old US shipping law. East coast demand is soaring and refiners are running almost at full capacity. More and more traders are sending gasoline to be blended in the Bahamas before being delivered back to the US.
7. Stocks are in the midst of a "classic" bear-market rally, BofA said. And indexes still remain vulnerable to falling under its recent lows even after the gains made over recent weeks. Notably, analysts found that just four large-cap stocks contributed 30% of the S&P 500's recent jump.
8. Mike Newton had less than $1,000 in savings for most of his adult life but now owns 10 rental units. The state trooper and former construction worker bought his first property at 28 and says real estate is his path to an early retirement. Here's his strategy for growing a property portfolio and achieving financial freedom.
9. This 24-year-old financial planner specializes in low-income earners. He's one of the youngest professionals in his position and spends much of his time doing crisis-control for clients living check-to-check. He broke down two money-management lessons he believes are crucially important.
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10. Apple could soar more than 30% as its outperformance against the broader stock market provides a bullish setup. That's according to Bank of America analysts, who said if share prices break above its December peak of about $183, the next rally will bring it into the $230s. Dig into the data here.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn).
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.
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