A once-in-century solar storm could fry power grids and knock out satellites. Here's why scientists worry it could happen soon.
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
- Most solar storms are pretty harmless, but every so often, the sun can send hugely powerful storms.
- These are strong enough to cause widespread power blackouts and bring down satellites.
- We are more likely than usual to be hit by a super-strong storm in the coming years, scientists say
The sun is always fizzing and popping and this constantly sends solar energy toward the Earth. But sometimes it's more serious.
On an average day, its vast solar energy is deflected without causing much damage. But every so often, the sun sends a storm so powerful it can tear open the Earth's magnetic fields.
If such a storm hit tomorrow, it would cause technological chaos that could "cripple economies and endanger the safety and livelihoods of people worldwide," per NASA.
Luckily, these storms are very rare. But our sun is getting restless ahead of a 20-year peak of activity, meaning there's more chance one could come to Earth in coming years, experts told Insider.
And we've never been more vulnerable.
A big storm is more likely in the coming years
Three different solar events can all send high-speed particles that mess with the Earth's magnetic fields: solar flares, coronal holes, or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — huge explosions on the sun.
If these crash into the Earth with enough violence, they can peel back the Earth's ionized layer which protects us against the worst of space weather. This can open the door for more charged particles to pour through.
"We're talking a one-in-a-hundred-year event," Mathew Owens, a professor of space physics at the University of Reading, told Insider.
This type of strong geomagnetic storm can happen at any time. But it becomes more likely during a peak of solar activity, which happens about every 11 years when the sun's magnetic field lines get more tangled and twisted.
That tension increases the chance the sun will create more sunspots, more CMEs, more solar flares, and more coronal holes. All of this gives more opportunity for a once-a-century event to arise.
NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory
"The much stronger events don't happen every cycle," Daniel Verscharen, an associate professor of space and climate physics at University College London, told Insider.
"But during a maximum of a strong cycle like the one that is coming, it's more likely to get some of those events that cause power outages here on Earth," he said.
We've never been more vulnerable to a powerful storm
The most powerful geomagnetic storms on record date back to before the internet and the massive satellite fleets that we see today. The more infrastructure we rely on, the more vulnerable we are to its failure.
The Carrington Event of 1859 is widely considered to be the most powerful solar storm ever recorded. But because there was very little infrastructure to mess up, it caused fairly little damage.
Still, it was dramatic: telegraph operators got electic shocks from their equipment, and fires broke out at telegraph stations as currents generated by the storm coursed through the wires.
Solar & Heliospheric Observatory/NASA via Getty Images
Another notable storm happened in 1989. Though this storm was less powerful, it was more disruptive —by that point, we'd started relying more on power grids and global communications.
The surge of power caused a widespread blackout in Quebec that lasted 12 hours and knocked out short-wave radio. Canadians worried that the Soviet Union was jamming radio signals into Russia, a misunderstanding that could have been dangerous in the Cold War.
These events, thankfully, did not escalate further. But it could mean that we've been lulled into a false sense of security. Since the 90s, our reliance on communications, satellites, power grids, and other crucial infrastructure has increased exponentially.
Should such a storm happen today, the world could expect to see widespread power blackouts, satellites crashing out of orbit, and crucial communication networks being cut, per NASA.
Why scientists are concerned about the next solar peak
The sun's activity is currently growing, and scientists are particularly concerned about the ongoing solar cycle.
This cycle is expected to be relatively moderate — but it is already more active than the previous cycle. That means the sun could become more active than it has been in the past two decades.
Another factor, per Verscharen, the space professor, is that the sun's magnetic fields are also pointing southwards. This which means the charged particles the sun is sending are more likely to carry a magnetic charge that's opposed to the Earth's magnetic field, he said.
This can give the particles more chance to break through the Earth's defenses.
NOAA/Insider
It is still entirely possible that a once-a-century storm skips this solar cycle. But that doesn't mean we'd be safe from harm.
"Every solar cycle, we're more and more technologically reliant. What an average cycle would've caused in terms of space weather impacts 20 years ago is a lot less than what an average cycle might cause in terms of space weather impact now," said Owens, the other professor.
A storm wouldn't have to be a Carrington-level event to have widespread consequences, both the experts said.
The current solar cycle is already causing havoc. Powerful solar flares have caused radio blackouts that can be disruptive to long-haul flights going over the poles.
Elon Musk's SpaceX also lost 40 Starlink satellites as a solar storm caused the atmosphere to expand, increasing the drag for the satellites and causing them to burn up before they were even used.
All of these types of effects can have "major financial impacts," said Verscharen.
Scientists are racing against the clock
The current cycle is expected to peak around 2025. But won't be out of the woods by then, because geomagnetic storms are more likely to happen as solar is coming down from a peak, Verscharen said.
Till then, countries in higher latitudes like the US, Canada, Sweden, and the UK should be particularly wary — the higher the country's latitude, the more vulnerable it is to solar weather, said Verscharen.
Still, there are ways to mitigate the worst of the storms. With enough warning, operators can put in place measures to protect infrastructure from the worst effect of solar storms. They can switch off power grids strategically, re-route planes, or move satellites, for instance.
Scientists like Verscharen and Owens are now racing to understand what makes solar events more powerful, so that they can improve our advanced warning systems.
The European Space Agency is also looking to launch the Vigil satellite, which is due to go behind the sun to spot potentially dangerous sunspots and coronal holes days before they roll into view of Earth.
"With a combination of better prediction, better understanding of space weather, and paying more attention by especially the private sector that is now growing into the space, those things should be avoidable," said Verscharen.
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