People who shun college could collectively lose $1 trillion in lifetime earnings — but the traditional college route may not always be the best option, an expert says

The pandemic has significantly impacted young people's education.

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• A study by My eLearning World focused on the potential ramifications of people not going to college.
• Research author Scott Winstead wonders if the traditional college route may have become redundant.
• He told Insider that some young people are taking "easier pathways."

A new study found that students who choose not to go to college could lose $1 trillion in lifetime earnings. While there was already a decrease in college enrollment over the last decade, the COVID-19 pandemic has further pushed the numbers down. 

The study was carried out by My eLearning World, which offers in-depth coverage on the latest virtual learning technology and methods for teachers and trainers.

According to the platform, there has been a 6.6% decline in enrollment since the pandemic hit — a total loss of 1,025,600 potential students.

Research author and founder of My eLearning World, Scott Winstead, told Insider: "In a study we put out a while back, we noted that the cost of going to college has risen at nearly five times the rate of inflation over the last 50 years. Meanwhile, real average wages have barely budged."

He added: "I'd argue that while part of the decline in enrollment is due to fears of the virus spreading, a lot of the acceleration in decline is the pandemic putting a spotlight on the problem that was already there." 

Winstead said that with schools canceling classes and going remote during the pandemic, students look at the "exorbitant" costs and wonder why they would sit at home and pay so much for Zoom classes. 

The study that Winstead referred to calculates the potential lost income by comparing average income per degree — from bachelor to doctoral — with a loss totaling $1,062,721,400,000.

The decline will not only impact adults but will likely lead to skill gaps, which would make it harder for businesses to find suitable and qualified workers, forcing them to shutter, the study suggests.

Insider's Ayelet Sheffey reported in early February that student-loan borrowers can get forgiveness through income-driven plans. However, while those plans should forgive borrowers' remaining balances after at least 20 years of repayment, only 32 borrowers ever have received that relief.

According to Winstead: "You can learn skills online for much less money using programs like LinkedIn Learning, Skillshare, and MasterClass."

He added: "There is a generation coming up that seems to take easier pathways. It's a lot easier to learn skills on a platform like one of the aforementioned, or even through Grow with Google, than to go the traditional route of filling out FAFSAs, filing college admission applications."

College tuition costs remain one of the largest driving factors behind drop-in enrollment but Winstead wonders whether the traditional college route will become redundant: "Is it like cable TV?" he asked. "A service rising in cost year after year without keeping up with changing times while new technology comes in and disrupts the model, providing a similar but different — maybe better — model at a fraction of the cost?"

Per the research, colleges can reverse the declining trend by making studying more affordable so young people aren't as tempted to skip school for jobs that pay the bills now but might not in the future. 

Colleges will likely always be needed for certain highly skilled career paths, such as becoming a surgeon, Winstead said. "There are also certain social benefits of attending college that might not be replaceable," he added.

As the report notes, that could total $1 trillion in lost lifetime income. Winstead added: "But with the paradigm shift, will that always be the case? Or could we see those numbers shift over time?"

 

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