The 30 early-stage startups in 2025 most likely to become tech's next unicorns, according to a proprietary AI model known as 'Moneyball for VC'
Beacons
- TRAC developed an AI model to predict the startups most likely to become unicorns.
- The firm has updated its list to reveal 30 new startups in 2025 that the model identified.
- TRAC says the companies it identifies have a one-in-five probability of becoming a unicorn.
Even though venture capitalists invest in tech, they have traditionally chosen early-stage investments that are decidedly low-tech, based largely on gut feelings, founder background, and personal relationships.
TRAC, a San Francisco-based early-stage venture firm cofounded by Fred Campbell, Joseph Aaron, Scott Pyne, Steve Marek, and Dick Fredericks in 2020, wants to change that.
The firm developed a proprietary model that uses AI to predict which early-stage startups are most likely to become unicorns, companies valued at more than a billion dollars. In 2023, TRAC first revealed 30 of the startups its model identified exclusively with Insider and also revealed its methodology. This year, the firm agreed to provide an updated list.
A few things are surprising about TRAC's model, which is based on over 30 sources of both public and private data that Aaron calls "Moneyball for venture capital."
For one thing, the firm says it is much more effective to focus on which startups are not likely to succeed versus picking the winners.
"Our algorithms are not really selecting needles from a haystack, as much as removing all the hay," Aaron explained. "Our AI eliminates about 99% of all early-stage companies from consideration, because our data predicts these companies have a higher probability of failure."
Another surprising thing about TRAC's model is it does not value founders as predictive. Instead, it finds the 291,000 investors in its database much more useful for determining a startup's success, especially a tiny number of just about 247 top angel investors and firms it calls "SuperForecasters."
"These extraordinary investors make a profit on two-thirds of their positions and one in five of their investments returns over 10X," Aaron explained.
While TRAC declined to share the full list of SuperForecasters it did share a random sampling of 30 of them with BI last year.
Less than 2% of all startups attract a SuperForecaster so that eliminates over 98% of all startups from TRAC's formula.
How accurate is TRAC's formula? Like early-stage investing as a whole, it takes a long time to know who is truly good at their job because venture investing is typically judged after a decade or more.
The firm says the companies it identifies have a one-in-five probability of becoming a unicorn, and it has been especially good at eliminating false positives, or an investment that goes bust.
"Most early-stage companies fail within 18 months of raising a round," Aaron said. "Similar vintage early-stage VCs would have had upwards of 20% of their portfolio be false positive within the first few years."
From the 2023 list, some of the companies listed have already achieved unicorn status or come close. Legal AI startup Harvey AI was valued at $1.5 billion in 2024. AI startup Hebbia raised $130 million at a $700 million valuation in 2024.
TRAC says it has made 61 seed investments, and none have lost money. "
"That is the only stat we have with bragging rights," Aaron said.
Here is the updated list of 30 companies in 2025 TRAC's model identified as being the next unicorns, in alphabetical order. The companies all have a valuation of less than $270 million. The average valuation is $149 million.
Amplify
What it does: Comprehensive life insurance platform
Founded: 2019
Last post-money valuation: $90 million, according to the company
Total raised: $45 million, according to the company
CEO: Hannah Wu
Founders: Hannah Wu and Qiyun Cai
Select investors: Greycroft, Anthemis, Mana Ventures, Crosslink Capital
Anrok
What it does: Global sales tax platform specifically built for software companies
Founded: 2020
Last post-money valuation: $250 million, according to the company
Total raised: $54 million, according to the company
CEO: Michelle Valentine
Founders: Michelle Valentine and Kannan Goundan
Select investors: Khosla Ventures, Elad Gil, Index Ventures, Sequoia Capital
Beacons
What it does: E-commerce platform and online solutions for creators
Founded: 2019
Last post-money valuation: $123 million, according to PitchBook
Total raised: $30 million, according to PitchBook
CEO: Neal Jean
Founders: Neal Jean, David Zeng, Greg Luppescu, Jesse Zhang
Select investors: Andreessen Horowitz, Y Combinator, Kora, Mantis VC
Beehiiv
What it does: Helps people publish newsletters
Founded: 2021
Last post-money valuation: $225 million, according to the company
Total raised: $49.7 million, according to the company
CEO: Tyler Denk
Founders: Tyler Denk, Jacob Hurd, Benjamin Hargett
Select investors: New Enterprise Associates, Sapphire Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Scott Galloway
Cal.com
What it does: Open-source scheduling infrastructure for various business sectors
Founded: 2021
Last post-money valuation: $175 million, according to the company
Total raised: $32.5 million, according to the company
President: Bailey Pumfleet
Founders: Bailey Pumfleet and Peer Richelsen
Select investors: Seven Seven Six, OSS Capital, Obvious Ventures, Tribe Capital, Alex Bouaziz, Jack Altman, Anthony Pompliano
Canary Technologies
What it does: Guest management platform and operational workflows for hotels
Founded: 2018
Last post-money valuation: Undisclosed
Total raised: $97 million, according to the company
CEO: Harman Singh Narula
Founders: SJ Sawhney and Harman Singh Narula
Select investors: Insight Partners, F-Prime Capital, Y Combinator
Databento
What it does: Distributes market data from over 45 trading exchanges
Founded: 2019
Last post-money valuation: $110 million, according to the company
Total raised: $37 million, according to the company
CEO: Christina Qi
Founders: Christina Qi and Luca Lin
Select investors: Redpoint Ventures, Unusual Ventures, Indicator Ventures, Tribe Capital, Operator Collective
Factory
What it does: Helps organizations manage and automate their software development
Founded: 2023
Last post-money valuation: $120 million, according to the company
Total raised: $20 million, according to the company
CEO: Matan Grinberg
Founders: Matan Grinberg and Eno Reyes
Select investors: Sequoia Capital, Lux Capital, Mantis VC, Ali Ghodsi
FlutterFlow
What it does: Low-code platform for mobile app developers
Founded: 2020
Last post-money valuation: $170 million, according to the company
Total raised: $30 million, according to the company
CEO: Abel Mengistu
Founders: Alex Greaves and Abel Mengistu
Select investors: GV, CRV, Gradient Ventures, Xoogler Ventures, Y Combinator
Goldcast
What it does: Helps companies conduct and measure their event marketing efforts
Founded: 2020
Last post-money valuation: $119 million, according to the company
Total raised: $40 million, according to the company
CEO: Palash Soni
Founders: Kishore Kothandaraman, Palash Soni, and Aashish Srinivas
Select investors: Underscore VC, Unusual Ventures, Westbridge Capital, HubSpot Ventures, Manik Gupta, Lenny Rachitsky, Scott Belsky, Elias Torres
K2 Space
What it does: Developing satellites that can deliver heavy payloads into orbit
Founded: 2022
Last post-money valuation: Undisclosed
Total raised: $71 million, according to the company
CEO: Karan Kunjur
Founders: Karan Kunjur and Neel Kunjur
Select investors: Altimeter Capital, Alpine Space Ventures, First Round Capital, Republic Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Also Capital
Lumos
What it does: Provides identity management software across a company's entire workforce and apps
Founded: 2020
Last post-money valuation: $205 million, according to PitchBook
Total raised: $65.3 million, according to PitchBook
CEO: Andrej Safundzic
Founders: Alan Flores-López, Leo Mehr, and Andrej Safundzic
Select investors: Andreessen Horowitz, Scale Venture Partners, Neo
Mermaid Chart
What it does: Uses AI for visual diagramming
Founded: 2022
Last post-money valuation: Undisclosed
Total raised: $9.5 million, according to PitchBook
Founder: Knut Sveidqvist
Select investors: Sequoia, M12, Open Core Ventures
Optery
What it does: Privacy management software that gives individuals control of their personal data
Founded: 2020
Last post-money valuation: $7.14 million, according to PitchBook
Total raised: $2.7 million, according to PitchBook
CEO: Lawrence Gentilello
Founders: Lawrence Gentilello, Chen Atlas, and Dekel Barzilay
Select investors: Y Combinator, Trac, Goodwater Capital
Orb
What it does: Offers real-time billing solutions for AI and software companies
Founded: 2021
Last post-money valuation: Undisclosed
Total raised: $44.1 million, according to PitchBook
CEO: Alvaro Morales
Founders: Kshitij Grover and Alvaro Morales
Select investors: Greylock, Menlo Ventures, Mayfield
Otto
What it does: Software designed to help veterinary clinics deliver better care
Founded: 2015
Last post-money valuation: Undisclosed
Total raised: $43 million, according to PitchBook
CEO: Zeynep Young
Founders: Steven Carter and Price Fallin
Select investors: Mercury Fund, Dundee Venture Capital, Atento Capital
Peregrine Technologies
What it does: Enables local police departments and public safety agencies to manage and visualize their data
Founded: 2018
Last post-money valuation: $360 million, according to the company
Total raised: $60 million, according to the company
CEO: Nicholas Noone
Founders: Nicholas Noone and Ben Rudolph
Select investors: Friends & Family Capital, Fifth Down Capital, Goldcrest Capital, Craft Ventures, Godfrey Capital
Render
What it does: Cloud hosting platform that helps developers create apps quickly and easily
Founded: 2018
Last post-money valuation: $230 million, according to PitchBook
Total raised: $156.8 million, according to the company
CEO and founder: Anurag Goel
Select investors: Bessemer Venture Partners, General Catalyst, Abstract Ventures, Elad Gil
Runa
What it does: Payments Infrastructure within the financial technology sector, offering embedded payouts, rewards, and incentives
Founded: 2016
Last post-money valuation: $100 million, according to PitchBook
Total raised: $54 million, according to the company
CEO and founder: Aron Alexander
Select investors: Albion, SAP.io, Clocktower
Stairwell
What it does: cybersecurity company
Founded: 2022
Last post-money valuation: $300 million, according to Pitchbook
Total raised: $70 million, according to PitchBook
CEO and founder: Mike Wiacek
Select investors: Accel, Lux Capital, Sequoia Capital
Starfish Space
What it does: It develops technology that helps satellites last longer, including refueling satellites and manually altering their orbits for safe disposal.
Founded: 2019
Last post-money valuation: $95 million, according to PitchBook
Total raised: $51 million, according to the company
CEO: Austin Link
Founders: Austin Link and Dr. Trevor Bennett
Select investors: Shield Capital, Point72, TRAC
Dan DeLong
What it does: Digital product testing platform that runs rapid product experiments and analyzes users' responses to new features and functionality
Founded: 2021
Last post-money valuation: $420 million, according to the company
Total raised: $53 million, according to the company
CEO and founder: Vijaye Raji
Select investors: Sequoia Capital, Madrona Venture Group
Joseph Kitonga
What it does: Provides affordable primary and urgent care health coverage plans, including primary and urgent care, mental health, and care
Founded: 2020
Last post-money valuation: $65 million, according to PitchBook
Total raised: $25 million, according to PitchBook
CEO and founder: Joseph Kitanga
Select investors: Y Combinator, First Round Capital, Softbank
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