US gas prices are set to become more affordable and could drop below $3 a gallon by fall GasBuddy's chief analyst says

AP

• Americans can expect cheaper gas prices this year, with the national average set to fall below $3 a gallon, per GasBuddy. 
• "I think the second half of the summer is going to be more affordable than the first half," Patrick De Haan said. 
• However, Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts, the hurricane season, and refinery outages are key headwinds. 

Americans could breathe a sigh of relief with gas prices set to be more affordable this year, according to GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis. 

In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Patrick De Haan highlighted that the average motorist is paying $20 less to fill up their tanks, with campers and pick-up trucks expected to save even more money over the July 4 weekend. 

US gas prices hit their lowest level since late April ahead of Independence Day, with the national average standing at $3.52 a gallon, per AAA. 

That's a significant drop from a year ago above, when prices rose above $5 a gallon thanks to Russia's war with Ukraine. Tensions between the two countries weighed on oil markets following embargoes and sanctions on Moscow's crude supply, ultimately leading to a an energy crisis across Europe and the US. 

Looking ahead, De Haan said that while this year's softer gas prices are good news for American drivers, some factors could stand in the way of the downward trajectory of fuel costs. 

"I think the second half of the summer is going to be more affordable than the first half. That's typical for the summer driving season as summer gasoline supplies build up. That typically puts downward pressure on prices," he said. 

De Haan noted that Saudi Arabia's latest decision to keep cutting crude production this summer could spark a rally in crude oil prices and offset GasBuddy's forecast for falling gas prices in August. 

The June-November Atlantic hurricane season, and any unexpected refinery outages, could also pose risks for the downward trend in gas prices, De Haan said. 

"Besides those things, I do expect some downward pressure on prices going into the closing innings of summers. The good news doesn't end there. This fall, barring a major turnaround, we could see the national average eventually falling below the $3 a gallon mark," De Haan said.

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