FedEx boss tells the US to brace for stagflation because there aren't enough workers to meet juiced-up demand
Brian Snyder/Reuters
- FedEx founder Fred Smith warned that labor shortages could lead to stagflation in the US.
- He told Fox Business that a lack of workers fueled the pandemic-era supply chain crisis.
- "You simply do not have the workers to meet the demand that's been juiced by the printing of money," Smith said.
The US is facing a shortage of workers alongside high easy money-driven demand, and that's driving up the risk of stagflation for the economy, FedEx's founder has warned.
Fred Smith said in a weekend interview that low labor participation rates mean the US will not have enough workers to meet demand, which he believes is soaring as a result of government support for the economy.
"You simply do not have the workers to meet the demand that's been juiced by the printing of money," the delivery giant's executive chairman told Fox Business's 'Kudlow' on Saturday.
"It's like sitting in your car and putting your foot on the accelerator and the brake at the same time," Smith said.
The combination of "tremendous" demand and lack of labor means the US is in a sort of stagflation period, he argued, after two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
Stagflation — a mixture of high inflation and a stagnant economy — is a nightmare for investors: It leaves them guessing which way the Federal Reserve will jump on dampening or stimulating growth.
Economist see the US labor market as tight, with worker demand considerably outpacing supply. Job openings in the US unexpectedly rose in July, but labor force participation measures — which track how may Americans are working or actively seeking work — still lag their pre-pandemic levels.
Smith is worried that Biden's student-loan forgiveness program, along with other recent measures that inject money into the economy, will push consumer demand up even higher.
"Over the last 15 or 16 months, there have been five separate occasions — from the American Recovery Act in March — where you had money being pumped into the economy," the FedEx exec said.
"We are the only people in the world who can do that. We are the reserve currency — if we want to buy something, we just print the money."
"The problem is when that comes head-to-head with the lack of labor we have in the United States to meet the demand," he added.
Labor shortages, rather than the coronavirus pandemic, fueled last year's supply-chain crisis, according to Smith. Problems with deliveries led to record shortages of everyday products — and that helped push up prices and inflation.
"People misjudged it as some sort of shipping issue in the main after the correction of the pandemic," he said. "There wasn't enough labor to offload the containers and distribute the items in the fulfillment centers."
Smith's warning about stagflation comes as investors brace for another interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve from its two-day meeting this week. There are concerns the Fed's aggressive rate hikes to tame red-hot inflation will send the US into recession.
FedEx rattled US stock markets last week after it scrapped its earnings guidance, citing a worsening global economy.
The stock — seen as an economic bellwether because package deliveries reflect demand for goods — fell 21% Friday to close at $161.02 a share. It fell less than 1% to $159.71 in premarket trading Monday.
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