There's a growing chorus of experts calling for substantial home price declines
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- Home prices are still increasing despite a cooling housing market.
- But price declines lie ahead, many experts argue.
- Insider recently spoke with three experts calling for median home prices to fall.
The housing market is starting to cool off in a big way thanks to skyrocketing mortgage rates this year.
Homebuilder sentiment is at its second-lowest level in 37 years thanks to tanking demand — existing home sales were down 14% in June, year-over-year.
Still, home prices have yet to take a hit. The median price of homes sold in the US hit an all-time high of $440,300 in the second quarter.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
But price declines are coming, according to a growing chorus of economists and industry experts.
Recently, Insider profiled the views of three experts calling for median home price drops ahead.
An investment analyst at a $31 billion firm says home prices are due to fall back toward their pre-pandemic levels — and shares 3 cities where declines will be among the worst in the country
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Michael Cook, an investment analyst at Penn Mutual Asset Management, told Insider that he thinks prices trend back toward their levels before the pandemic began, especially in some of the hottest markets in the county.
"The U.S. housing market is due for a reset, given the extraordinary home price growth seen since the onset of the pandemic," Cook said.
'A perfect storm is brewing': A senior economist says home prices are primed for a 2008-style crash as housing construction booms and demand gets crushed by rising mortgage rates
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José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said he thinks supply and demand dynamics in the market are moving in such a way that creates a perfect recipe for home price declines.
"A perfect storm is brewing in the real estate market due to near decade high construction levels and plummeting demand," Torres said.
'The damage is likely to have already been done': A former IMF official says that substantial home price declines are coming in the US housing market as demand-crushing dynamics continue to put buyers on the sidelines
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Desmond Lachman, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, broke down for Insider why prices will drop 15-20% as buyer demand gets crushed by rising interest rates and a still-hawkish Fed.
"They're going to keep monetary policy tight, even if inflation peaks," Lachman said.
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