A secret, high-level meeting suggests Israel and Saudi Arabia are hedging their bets on Biden
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- Saudi and Israeli sources say that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman met covertly on November 22, the first such meeting between Israeli and Saudi leaders.
- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's presence at the meeting indicates that the US supports their closer ties, but the US is about to get a new president, and the two Middle Eastern leaders may also be seeking a more diverse friend group.
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Full normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains unlikely in the near term, but defense and intelligence cooperation will continue to advance in the coming months.
Saudi and Israeli sources, speaking to Reuters and The Wall Street Journal, have confirmed that Prime Minister Netanyahu traveled to the Saudi city of Neom on November 22 for a covert discussion with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, marking the first-ever such meeting between Israeli and Saudi leaders.
The conversation between Netanyahu and the Saudi Crown Prince (who also serves as the kingdom's defense minister) focused on normalizing relations and cooperating against Iran. This, combined with the fact that Mossad head Yossi Cohen was reportedly also in attendance, signals deepening intelligence and defense cooperation between the two countries.
The United States still appears to be interested in facilitating stronger Saudi-Israeli ties, given that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo allegedly also attended the November 22 meeting in Neom.
The administration of US President Donald Trump is trying to use its final weeks in office to cement its legacy abroad. And normalization between Israel and Arab Gulf states (including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan) has been a key foreign policy victory for the Trump White House.
Saudi Arabia and Israel, meanwhile, are seeking to lessen their reliance on US cooperation by diversifying their international relationships, including with one another, for fear that the incoming administration of US President-elect Joe Biden will adopt a moderate approach to Iran, as well as a more critical approach to the region's overall human rights record.
Saudi Arabia and Israel also have mutual covert concerns about the Houthi movement in Yemen (which is Iran-aligned and threatens both Saudi Arabian territory and Israeli shipping in the Red Sea), and share concerns about Iranian militia and missile build-ups in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria as well.
A deeper Israeli-Saudi defense relationship would provide new options for the two to counter Iran, particularly in covert operations in proxy theaters like Syria, Iraq and Yemen. It might also soften some opposition in the US Congress to new arms sales to Saudi Arabia, as the Israelis become a more overt ally of Saudi national interests and defense priorities.
- On the campaign trail, Biden criticized the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" approach to Iran, as well as its abrupt exit from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
In addition to offering the two countries a strategic asset against Iran, further developments in the Saudi-Israeli relationship would be a boon for Israeli normalization globally.
Saudi Arabia's still-notable influence in the Muslim world gives its action weight among global opinion. As Riyadh warms to Israel, its actions could mollify attitudes around Israel in other Muslim-majority countries, boosting momentum toward normalization in states such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh.
Saudi Press Agency/Handout via Reuters
Closer Israeli-Saudi ties would also prove economically beneficial for both countries.
Saudi Arabia, and in particular its high-profile development projects like Neom, are reliant on advanced technologies such as biotech, agricultural tech and cyber technologies to succeed. And Israel is already among the global leaders in these sectors.
- In return for normalization, the United Arab Emirates' private and public sector is gaining rapid access to Israeli technologies.
However, Saudi Arabia has not yet shown that it's prepared to make the jump to normalization with Israel without the formation of a Palestinian state.
Saudi media has been attempting to normalize conversations around Israel, shifting away from the kingdom's previous blanket censorship of the subject of Israel as an issue. But Saudi Arabia's official line, and one upheld by King Salman, remains that normalization of the two countries' ties will only happen with a final peace deal that includes a Palestinian state as laid out in the Saudi-led 2000 Arab Peace Initiative.
Domestic backlash in Saudi Arabia could also cause notable security concerns.
Normalization remains broadly unpopular among the Saudi population and in the traditional, King Salman-dominated establishment. Given the spate of recent terror attacks in Saudi Arabia, including a relatively rare Islamic State attack triggered by the renewed controversy in France around the Prophet Muhammad cartoons, extremist sentiment remains clearly present in the kingdom and able to inspire violence.
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