Prediction markets are running up the score on sportsbooks at the World Cup
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- Betting interest is at a fever pitch as the World Cup plays out across North America.
- Prediction markets have been crushing traditional sportsbooks in terms of user activity.
- Detailed below are three charts that show the dominance in action.
When it comes to watching soccer, no one wants to see a tie. But you know what makes a tie more palatable? Making money betting on it to happen.
(Have I implemented this strategy to spice up my own World Cup viewing? No comment.)
It's the type of mindset that's been increasingly pervading the sports-watching experience, with sportsbook apps and prediction markets giving people access to a seemingly unlimited number of betting opportunities.
But under the surface of the global gambling monolith is a divide developing between traditional sportsbooks and the prediction-market companies currently eating their lunch. The World Cup has only made that wedge more pronounced.
In a previous edition of First Trade, I unpacked the key differences between the two forms of betting. In short, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate under a more favorable regulatory framework — at least for now — that allows lower fees and tighter pricing.
Based on data since the start of the World Cup — and actually going back to the beginning of the NBA and NHL finals — Kalshi and Polymarket have seen a massive jump in daily average users. Check out the following chart, based on data compiled by Adam Blacker of Apptopia:
This isn't to say that the traditional sportsbook apps are hurting for engagement. On a year-over-year basis, daily active users have risen sharply: DraftKings is up 117%, FanDuel 48%, and BetMGM 42%.
But those gains accumulated over an entire year. Kalshi and Polymarket posted even larger daily-user increases in just the past month.
This next chart, which shows app downloads from June 1 to 15 of this year, leaves no doubts about prediction-market dominance. Apptopia data shows that Kalshi and Polymarket combined accounted for nearly 75% of activity over the period.
For the third and final piece of evidence, I present the relative year-to-date stock performances for DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment (which owns FanDuel). Aside from a decent-sized jump in June for DraftKings, it's been pretty grim. Neither company has been able to translate their spiking users into a full-fledged stock recovery.
So there you have it. It's officially a World Cup Prediction Market summer. People will have action going on everything from whether there'll be a handball in a specific match, to whether the announcers will say the word "Powerade." As long as there's excitement about the World Cup, the more Kalshi and Polymarket's usage stats will continue up and to the right.
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