21 states where recession bells are ringing after unemployment jumps

Rising unemployment in 21 US states points to a recession later this year, Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar says.

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• Rising unemployment in nearly half of US states points to a recession this year, one economist says.
• 21 states have seen a jump in joblessness over the last year, Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar told BI.
• Here are the states signaling a recession is on the way.

Unemployment has risen sharply in nearly half of US states, paving the way for a recession later this year, one top economist says.

Piper Sandler's chief global economist, Nancy Lazar, highlighted 21 states to Business Insider where three-month average unemployment has risen by at least 0.5 percentage points over the past 12 months. The states in question account for over 40% of US GDP.

When unemployment has jumped by that much, in that many states, a recession has almost always followed, Lazar said. The economic indicator is known as the "Sahm Rule."

Here are the 21 states signaling a recession may be on the way:

1. Rhode Island

Providence, Rhode Island.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.03%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.63%

Change: +1.40%

2. Connecticut

Hartford, Connecticut.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.47%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.33%

Change: +1.13%

3. Washington

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.77%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.80%

Change: +0.97%

4. Louisiana

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.30%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.37%

Change: +0.93%

5. Maine

Boats docked in Portland, Maine.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.27%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.40%

Change: +0.87%

6. New Hampshire

Concord, New Hampshire.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 2.60%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 1.80%

Change: +0.80%

7. California

San Francisco, California.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 5.30%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.50%

Change: +0.80%

8. West Virginia

Charleston, West Virginia.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.30%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.50%

Change: +0.80%

9. Oregon

Salem, Oregon.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.20%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.43%

Change: +0.77%

10. Alabama

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.03%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.30%

Change: +0.73%

11. New Jersey

Jersey City, New Jersey.

Walter Hickey / BI

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.77%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.03%

Change: +0.73%

12. Montana

Helena, Montana.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.27%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.53%

Change: +0.73%

13. Alaska

Anchorage, Alaska.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.60%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.87%

Change: +0.73%

14. Arkansas

Little Rock, Arkansas.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.50%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.83%

Change: +0.67%

15. Colorado

Denver, Colorado.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.63%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.00%

Change: +0.63%

16. Maryland

Baltimore, Maryland.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 2.50%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 1.90%

Change: +0.60%

17. Illinois

Chicago, Illinois.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.80%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.20%

Change: +0.60%

18. Oklahoma

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.53%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.97%

Change: +0.57%

19. Kentucky

Louisville, Kentucky.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.50%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.00%

Change: +0.50%

20. Ohio

Cincinnati, Ohio.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.83%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.33%

Change: +0.50%

21. Missouri

Jefferson City, Missouri.

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Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.33%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.83%

Change: +0.50%

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